Iranian Sustainable Building Scientific Association International Journal of Urban Management and Energy Sustainability 2538-1628 7 3 2026 07 01 A Population-Growth Model for the Optimal Disposal of Urban Waste in Qaemshahr City 40 50 741408 10.22034/ijumes.2026.2105381.1403 EN Maedeh Ebrahimi Department of Urban Geography and Planning, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran 0009-0007-3247-0102 Ameneh Haghzad Department of Urban Geography and Planning, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran 0000-0002-6995-8140 Mehrdad Ramezanipour Department of Urban Geography and Planning, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran 0000-0002-3144-3192 Asgar Mirfatollahi Department of Urban Geography and Planning, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran 0000-0003-3472-4288 Leila Ebrahimi Department of Urban Geography and Planning, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran 0000-0001-8021-9106 Journal Article 2026 06 09 The present study aims to present a population-growth-based model for the optimal disposal of urban waste in the city of Qaemshahr, Iran, so that demographic change and consumption patterns can be linked to waste-management planning. The research is applied in terms of purpose, exploratory in terms of data collection and mixed in terms of the nature of the data. In the qualitative part, data were collected through interviews and analysed using thematic analysis in the quantitative part, a questionnaire and structural equation modelling with the partial-least-squares approach were used. The thematic analysis identified 48 initial codes, organised into seven components under the main theme “effective waste management”: identifying consumption patterns, developing waste-management infrastructure, raising public awareness, social participation, the use of new technologies, creating economic incentives, and regulating laws and regulations. The PLS structural model confirmed that all seven components have a positive and significant effect on urban waste management; developing waste-management infrastructure had the strongest effect, followed by identifying consumption patterns and regulating laws and regulations. The results show a direct, significant relationship between population growth and waste generation, and that the optimal management of urban waste requires a comprehensive, multidimensional approach combining infrastructural, social, technological, economic and regulatory measures. The proposed model can serve as an effective, novel approach for optimising urban-waste management and improving citizens’ quality of life in Qaemshahr and other cities with similar conditions. https://www.ijumes.com/article_741408_cf30246d636c8318b52f66e3b02ab569.pdf