Iranian Sustainable Building Scientific Association International Journal of Urban Management and Energy Sustainability 2538-1628 7 2 2026 04 01 Assessing Urban Thermal Vulnerability Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making for Climate Change Adaptive Planning (Case Study: Tabriz City, Iran) 738888 10.22034/ijumes.2026.738888 EN Farhad Faghihi Department of Civil Engineering, Technical and Vocational University (TVU), Tehran, Iran 0000-0001-6817-5964 Seyed Hossein Yousefianvar Department of Architecture, Sav.C., Islamic Azad University, Saveh, Iran 0000-0002-7006-7273 Journal Article 2026 02 08 Rapid urbanization and climate change are intensifying urban heat, making the identification of heat-vulnerable areas essential for climate-adaptive planning. Guided by the IPCC framework, which defines vulnerability through exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, this study develops and demonstrates an integrated approach for assessing and mapping urban thermal vulnerability in Tabriz, a large semi-arid city in northwestern Iran with limited green space. The methodology integrates geographic information systems (GIS), multi-criteria decision-making, and social-science measurement. Twelve indicators were organized across the three vulnerability components. Real land-use data were processed in GIS, while residents’ perceptions were assessed using a structured five-point Likert questionnaire administered to 384 respondents determined by the Cochran formula. An 18-member expert panel provided pairwise comparisons. Criterion weights were derived using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP), while exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses examined construct validity. Covariance-based structural equation modelling (SEM/LISREL) tested hypothesized relationships, and weighted overlay analysis generated a five-level Thermal Vulnerability Index (TVI) map, validated against summer land-surface temperature. The land-use analysis indicates that barren and abandoned land (35.4%), agriculture (19.1%), and residential fabric (17.2%) dominate Tabriz city, whereas green land uses comprise only 5.3% of the urban area. The demonstrative model indicates that exposure and sensitivity increase thermal vulnerability, while adaptive capacity reduces it and partially mediates the effect of exposure. Approximately 36% of the urban area falls within high or very-high vulnerability classes, primarily in dense built-up zones with limited green cover. The framework provides a transparent, reproducible, and transferable decision-support tool for prioritizing heat-adaptation interventions. https://www.ijumes.com/article_738888_4b5659c6ca9c583c93d9e11a068bc9ea.pdf