Identification of regional development drivers by scenario Planning

Document Type : Case Study


1 Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Central Branch, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Urban Planning, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran

3 Department of Reconstruction, Faculty of Urban Planning and Architecture, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran


Looking ahead is a deeply rooted motivation and even basic human has been faced with this problem, then it cannot be said that noticing future is a feature of modern humans. Merely in the contemporary era due to rise of awareness of human knowledge on one hand and escalating worries about the acceleration of unknown events on the other hand the thought of thinking of future of societies became popular in a more severe frame. The future is something that humans can design with their purposeful measures and then shape it. Increased complexity and precariousness in the few decades has led planners and policy-makers turn to scenario planning making in such circumstances. Adaptability of future methods in urban and regional planning, provides a meticulous approach for regional planning which is mostly based on the interpolation, compatibility and participation. This research was conducted with the goal of regional development and the feasibility of the program in Shemiranat County and through scenario planning in regional planning. Information needed for this research was compiled using an open and structured questionnaire through Delphi method and comments of experts and data from MICMAC in three cycles and then using interactive analysis techniques, they were analyzed in the software. Finally, according to Schwartz scenario writing was conducted. The results show that Shemiranat will face four main scenarios. The four scenarios will be described


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