International Journal of Urban Management and Energy Sustainability

International Journal of Urban Management and Energy Sustainability

A Population-Growth Model for the Optimal Disposal of Urban Waste in Qaemshahr City

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Maedeh Ebrahimi
Ameneh Haghzad
Mehrdad Ramezanipour
Asgar Mirfatollahi
Leila Ebrahimi
Department of Urban Geography and Planning, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran
10.22034/ijumes.2026.2105381.1403
Abstract
The present study aims to present a population-growth-based model for the optimal disposal of urban waste in the city of Qaemshahr, Iran, so that demographic change and consumption patterns can be linked to waste-management planning. The research is applied in terms of purpose, exploratory in terms of data collection and mixed in terms of the nature of the data. In the qualitative part, data were collected through interviews and analysed using thematic analysis in the quantitative part, a questionnaire and structural equation modelling with the partial-least-squares approach were used. The thematic analysis identified 48 initial codes, organised into seven components under the main theme “effective waste management”: identifying consumption patterns, developing waste-management infrastructure, raising public awareness, social participation, the use of new technologies, creating economic incentives, and regulating laws and regulations. The PLS structural model confirmed that all seven components have a positive and significant effect on urban waste management; developing waste-management infrastructure had the strongest effect, followed by identifying consumption patterns and regulating laws and regulations. The results show a direct, significant relationship between population growth and waste generation, and that the optimal management of urban waste requires a comprehensive, multidimensional approach combining infrastructural, social, technological, economic and regulatory measures. The proposed model can serve as an effective, novel approach for optimising urban-waste management and improving citizens’ quality of life in Qaemshahr and other cities with similar conditions.

Graphical Abstract

A Population-Growth Model for the Optimal Disposal of Urban Waste in Qaemshahr City

Highlights

·         A mixed-methods study links population growth and consumption patterns to a practical model for the optimal disposal of urban waste in Qaemshahr, Iran.

·         Thematic analysis of 15 expert interviews (Braun & Clarke) yielded 48 codes organised into seven components under the main theme “effective waste management.”

·         PLS-SEM on 384 citizens confirmed that all seven components significantly affect urban-waste management (all paths p < 0.01).

·         Developing waste-management infrastructure had the strongest effect (β = 0.40), followed by identifying consumption patterns (β = 0.35) and regulating laws and regulations (β = 0.32).

·         The findings support a comprehensive, multidimensional approach infrastructural, social, technological, economic and regulatory transferable to other cities with similar demographic pressures.

Keywords
Optimization
population-growth model
Qaemshahr
sustainable development
waste management
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International Journal of Urban Management and Energy Sustainability

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 12 September 2026

  • Receive Date 09 June 2026
  • Revise Date 27 August 2026
  • Accept Date 12 September 2026