Examining the Effect of Project Risk Management on Demolition Performance in Construction Projects: A Case Study of the Dilapidated Buildings of Najaf City, Iraq

Mohsin Mjali, Ali; Vahid Faghihi, Sayyed

doi:10.22034/ijumes.2026.2107942.1416

Examining the Effect of Project Risk Management on Demolition Performance in Construction Projects: A Case Study of the Dilapidated Buildings of Najaf City, Iraq

Document Type : Case Study

Authors

Ali Mohsin Mjali ¹

Sayyed Vahid Faghihi ²

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Civil Engineering, Construction Management, Aras International Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Construction Engineering and Management Division, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/ijumes.2026.2107942.1416

Abstract

Demolition is the first and inherently most hazardous stage of the urban-regeneration cycle, yet within the construction risk-management literature it has received a disproportionately small share of attention. In historic and religious urban fabrics such as Najaf city in Iraq, the demolition process is compounded by high building density. The present study aims to determine the extent to which project risk management affects demolition performance in construction projects, focusing on the dilapidated buildings of the city of Najaf. The research is applied in purpose and descriptive–survey in method. The statistical population comprised 175 project managers, supervising engineers, site superintendents, and safety experts involved in demolition projects in Najaf. Data were gathered with a researcher-made questionnaire on a five-point Likert scale whose content validity and reliability were confirmed. Data were analysed in SPSS using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Pearson correlation, and simple linear regression. Project risk management was a significant predictor of demolition performance. The adjusted coefficient of determination was 0.717, indicating that 71.7% of the variance in demolition performance is explained by project risk management; the standardized regression coefficient of 0.847 denotes a strong, positive linear relationship, confirmed at a significance level of 0.0001 with a Durbin–Watson statistic of 2.264. Investment in project risk management yields a significant improvement in the safety, schedule, cost, and quality of demolition. For historic religious fabrics such as Najaf, a systematic, context-sensitive risk-management framework based on the five-stage PMBOK process should be institutionalized as a legal prerequisite for issuing demolition permits.

Graphical Abstract

Examining the Effect of Project Risk Management on Demolition Performance in Construction Projects: A Case Study of the Dilapidated Buildings of Najaf City, Iraq

Highlights

● Project risk management is a strong, significant predictor of demolition performance, explaining 71.7% of its variance (β = 0.847, p < 0.001) in the dilapidated buildings of Najaf.

● The five-stage PMBOK risk process-planning, identification, quantitative and qualitative analysis, response, and monitoring and control jointly improves the safety, schedule, cost, and execution quality of demolition.

● In historic and religious fabrics such as Najaf, structural and socio-cultural risks carry the highest weight and require a context-sensitive rather than a generic risk-management framework.

● The explanatory power obtained here (R² = 0.717) exceeds comparable studies (60.6% in Nairobi; 64% in high-density urban areas), reflecting the heightened stakes of demolition near the sacred shrine.

● Embedding an approved, context-sensitive, PMBOK-based risk-management plan as a legal prerequisite for issuing demolition permits is recommended to minimize the human, financial, and cultural hazards of demolition.

Keywords

Demolition performance

dilapidated buildings

historic urban fabric

Najaf

project risk management

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